Matt Gunterman March 22nd, 2007

The victory we want and the victory we’re working for here at this blog is the defeat of Republican Sen. Mitch McConnell at the ballot box on Tuesday, November 4, 2008.

How is that possible and how do we make it happen? I’ve been hearing that a lot lately from Kentuckians and non-Kentuckians alike. No-one likes Sen. McConnell, they’d love to see him fall, but they just aren’t able to see how it all comes together quite yet.

Let me explain how it’s possible first by explaining the political dynamics that are developing nationally and in Kentucky.

You’ve no doubt seen the Pew Research Center survey numbers that appeared yesterday that show the bottom falling out of American identification with the Republican Party brand. It’s significant that this trend has been both consistent and is now accelerating. There’s a sea change in American politics at work.

It’s a phenomenon that even some prominent Republicans are realizing. Note Senator Chuck Hagel’s comments recently that the nation is “experiencing a political reorientation, a redefining and moving toward a new political center of gravity.”

The Republican Party is going to adapt to this new political reality, and that’s part of our opportunity against Sen. Mitch McConnell.

McConnell has a double whammy working against him in this sense, too. Not only are national political developments and trends in the GOP overtaking Kentucky’s senior senator, but so are events in the Kentucky GOP.

McConnell will not have a unified Republican base backing him in 2008. There will be fallout from this civil war in the Republican gubernatorial primary, and any cracks in McConnell’s base will be significant advantages for his Democratic opponent.

I expect that McConnell is rationalizing that all but a very few Republicans in Kentucky will hold their nose and vote for him in the end, but what McConnell isn’t adding into his equation is that these emergent national trends mentioned above might well influence the votes of Kentucky Republicans.

What if Kentucky Republicans decide that Mitch, his style of politics, and legacy are bad for the future of their party, for the political ideology they hold dear, and the nation? These dissatisfied Republicans might not vote for the Democrat in the end, but staying home on election night is nearly equally as troubling for McConnell’s cause.

Mitch McConnell cannot and will not adapt himself to any new political reality. He will fight to his political death to preserve the environment that has brought him his power. That was his methodology with campaign finance reform, and he will take a similar path here.

McConnell is not a dynamic politician; he is not a man of ideas or charisma. He’s made it to where he is today by mastering very narrow elements of the legislative and fundraising processes. If those assets suddenly become burdens (i.e., the Republican Party decides it needs to re-brand itself as a party of some level of reform and one with a friendly face as its voice in the Senate), then McConnell is done for.

That’s how the dynamics are shaping up. Now, how do we make McConnell’s defeat happen? I think we do that by making the election a battle between the future of Kentucky and the past of Mitch McConnell. Yes, the election will in the end be a struggle between an as-yet-unknown Democrat and Republican Mitch McConnell, but the future is something that Republicans as a party have a stake in, too, and if an appreciable number of them understand the future as a place without Mitch McConnell in it, that’s to all our advantage.

We have to go to our neighbors, and our friends, and our families and make the case to them of why McConnell is bad for the nation and the commonwealth and how we can build a future without him.

McConnell is going to try and swing the election on the influence that he has in the nation’s capital and the pork he’s been able to bring home, but if Kentuckians sense that events are leaving the man behind, they’ll abandon that ship.

• Action! , Kentucky GOP , Mitch McConnell , Republican Party Decline
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