SUSA: Gov. Ernie Fletcher (R) approval hits 40% for first time in over two years
Matt Gunterman August 17th, 2007
The sparkling wine bottles will be popping at Fletcher/Rudolph 2007 HQ today!
The August Survey USA approval/disapproval tracking numbers are out for Kentucky Governor Ernie Fletcher (R), and they show that the scandal-plagued Republican’s approval has topped 40 percent for the first time in over two years (the tracking graph only records back to May 2005).
Why are approval numbers that would scream nothing but political doom anywhere else in the nation sweet music to the politically tone-deaf ears of Ernie Fletcher? Well, after all, it was only a year ago this month that Fletcher’s approval bottomed out at 24 percent. [Keep on the sunny side, always on the sunny side! Anybody got a broom for pedagogically challenged running mate Robbie Rudolph to use as a prop?]
Of course, this month’s upward movement was a statistically insignificant one point (Aug:40/57; Jul:39/57), but all statistics are insignificant to the Fletcher camp, whether they’re the ones showing Kentucky’s sorry state of health, education, or business climate. [Keep on the sunny side, always on the sunny side!]
Where’s Fletcher’s big gain coming from? Among Republicans and conservatives.
In the last month, Fletcher’s approval/disapproval went from 58/39 among Republicans to 62/35. In March of this year, Fletcher was at 46/50 with that group. So, he’s consolidating his party base, but he’ll need significantly more than 70 percent support from Republicans at the ballot box, especially considering that Republican turnout is likely to be somewhat suppressed, to pull off a November win. Republicans accounted for 34 percent of the latest survey.
Fletcher’s popularity this month among conservatives rebounded to 57/39 from 52/46 after plummeting between June and July. Conservatives were 33 percent of this survey.
There was no significant movement among males, females, Democrats, independents, moderates, or liberals.
By region, there was no significant change in western Kentucky, Louisville, or eastern Kentucky.
There was, however, a statistically significant jump in Fletcher’s approval in northern Kentucky, where the governor went from 37/57 to 45/53.
- Ernie Fletcher , Gubernatorial race '07 , Opinion Polls
- Comments(3)
That’s not really a suprise, whenever you ask a blank approval question in a non-election year you get a lower approval rating then in an election year. For example, once compared to the other guy running the ratings jump… you’ll see the same thing happen for Mitch next election… Of course you might not report it.
Or, Herodotus, it likely has much more to do with the fact that last August was when Fletcher cut a deal with Stumbo and Fletcher went into campaign mode. Fletcher’s numbers aren’t going up because it’s an election year, they’re going up because he’s going around the state campaigning. Most people aren’t buying it, but some of the wayward base are. As far as McConnell’s concerned, he’s entering campaign mode, too. We’ll know something this month about how well his efforts so far are succeeding. My gut tells me he’ll bump up a wee bit this month because the immigration battle is off the radar screen. If McConnell goes down, however, then it’s bad, bad news for him. The mood of the commonwealth will have simply soured overall.
Oh, Herodotus! I have been following it for years, and generally approval per centages track pretty close to election per centages of votes won when the candidate with the approval rating faces an opponent in the fall. President Bush has a low approval rating, but he won’t have to face the voters again.