Matt Gunterman August 12th, 2007

Al Cross, veteran political journalist and director of the UK’s Institute for Rural Journalism offers an outstanding post-Fancy Farm round up of the sorry political position of Governor Ernie Fletcher (R).

I’ve included the entire column below, but one of Cross’s best observations is that Fletcher and Senator Mitch McConnell (R) are trying to sell Kentuckians on the scary liberal bit, a favorite of McConnell’s, once again. The problem? It doesn’t have the salience it for the past generation? Why? Because conservatives are the scary ones now. They’re the ones bent on needless, endless, and fruitless war. They’re the ones allied with fundamentalist Christians out to purify the nation of anything they deem unfit in others (they ignore that log in their own eye, you know). They’re the ones who’ve spent the nation into trillions of dollars of more debt. They’re the ones who want to throw science out of the laboratory and our schools’ classrooms for the sake of their fairy tales. They’re the ones who’ve allowed our middle class to waste away for the sake of free markets that are anything but.

CONSERVATIVES ARE SCARY!

And, also, for the record, every blogger — both on the left and the right — who attended Fancy Farm and who went on record themselves agreed that, objectively, by some factor Democratic activists outnumbered Republican activists. The one person who disagreed with us was Bill Bartleman of the Paducah Sun, which is a paper almost entirely unread within the blogosphere because it’s subscription only (and a conservative rag, I might add). Bartleman said it was a 50/50 divide. The blogosphere called him on it, and his only response was that unnamed reporters also agreed with him.

Well, notice in the column below that Al Cross certainly doesn’t.

Divided party haunts Fletcher
Can hard-right issues turn tide?

FANCY FARM, Ky. — The political speaking at the Fancy Farm Picnic is not an educational exercise. It is rhetorical and theatrical, testing politicians’ mettle and wits more than their minds and ideas. But it can help you understand an election.

Last weekend, the Democrats in the raucous crowd didn’t lose a single shouting contest, as they clearly outnumbered Republicans. The turnout showed how Democratic partisans are unified and energized behind the gubernatorial candidacy of Steve Beshear, and how much ground Republican Gov. Ernie Fletcher still has to make up in his own party.

The latest evidence: a Survey USA automated poll, taken Saturday through Monday, showing that most of the Republicans who voted for Anne Northup in the primary probably are for Beshear.

With such a weak and fractured party, Fletcher has to build a new base for this election. He is taking the only route available: social conservatism.

Beshear handed Fletcher a wedge issue by supporting casinos at horse-race tracks and up to four other sites. That plan won’t fit on a bumper sticker; Fletcher’s already does: “Say NO to Casinos.” In politics, simplicity can be a virtue. In a contest of ideas, those who frame the debate and keep it understandable usually win.

Beshear spent much time in his picnic speech defending his plan, continuing Fletcher’s control of the “free media” or “earned media” phase of the race, abetted by wrangling over the special legislative session. Democrats got so antsy about the media angle that Mark Nickolas revived his BluegrassReport.org political blog.

But the anti-casino argument, from a governor who once said he wouldn’t oppose a referendum on the issue, seems unlikely to trump the ingrained, negative opinions voters have about him — in a state where horses are now the main agricultural product and $1 billion a year goes to other states’ casinos.

Fletcher says Beshear’s plan makes the election a referendum on the issue, but that’s an incomplete strategy for victory. When voters approved a lottery in 1988, only 17 of the 120 counties voted against it. That’s about as many as Fletcher would carry with such a limited message.

So, gambling and Fletcher’s exaggerations of its evils are just the point of entry for a broader argument aimed at socially conservative Democrats — that Beshear is a liberal pushed by “liberal media,” a construction often used by Sen. Mitch McConnell, whose handiwork is apparent in the campaign.

In his picnic speech, Fletcher didn’t mention abortion (perhaps because folks who vote on that issue are pretty well informed about candidates’ stands on it) or Democrats’ special-session bugaboo, domestic-partner benefits at universities. He did mention the potent issues of guns and the Ten Commandments, complete with theatrical props, but on both violated the commandment against bearing false witness.

“If he had his way, local communities could take away your guns,” Fletcher said. His campaign said that referred to Beshear’s opinion as attorney general that Louisville could impose a waiting period to buy a handgun. The facts fail to support the charge.

Fletcher said we won’t find the commandments in schools and courthouses because Beshear said they had to go. Wrong again. The Supreme Court said that, and Beshear said (in a case only about schools) the Court had to be obeyed.

If Fletcher gets his facts straight, such arguments may shore up his GOP base, but he will remain a tough sell in the other party. Still, socially conservative Democrats could be persuaded to stay home, making the election more competitive. And the X Factor is Fletcher’s four-year incumbency, something never truly tested in Kentucky. But the national winds are blowing against Republicans, and the fall looks Democratic.

• Al Cross , Ernie Fletcher , Fancy Farm 2007 , Gubernatorial race '07 , Mitch McConnell
• Comments(1)