“National Journal refuses to print Rasmussen polls, yet Democrat leaders will trumpet bogus polls like this one in a futile effort to create a false sense of momentum for the hand-picked candidate of New York Sen. Chuck Schumer and the DSCC,” McConnell spokesman Justin Brasell said, referring to the chairman of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee.

The reality is that Robo-pollsters like SurveyUSA and Rasmussen have had the best track record the past few election cycles. In 2004, it was the robos who dominated the results:

Before the election, we publicly doubted and privately derided Rasmussen and SurveyUSA, which used recorded voices to read their poll questions. We rolled our eyes when they touted the virtues of uniformity and when they complained that live interviewers “may not know how to read or speak the English language,” could “chew gum,” or might “just make up the answers to questions.” It sounded to us like a rationalization for cutting costs.

Look who’s laughing now. Rasmussen and SurveyUSA beat most of their human competitors in the battleground states, often by large margins.

Then there was 2006:
* * *
Let’s look at Poblano’s scorecard for 2008:

1. Selzer & Co
2. SurveyUSA (Automated)
3. Rasmussen (Automated)
4. U of New Hampshire
5. Chicago Tribune/Market Shares
6. Field Poll
7. Mason-Dixon
8. Research 2000
9. Quinnipiac
10. Detroit News/Mitchell
11. Ohio Poll/U of Cincinnati
12. Public Policy Polling (automated)
13. Strategic Vision
14. Insider Advantage (automated)
15. Franklin Pierce
16. ABC/Washington Post
17. Zogby
18. EPIC-MRA
19. Farleigh Dickinson
20. Suffolk
21. CNN/Opinion Research
22. LA Times/Bloomberg
23. ARG
24. Fox/Opinion Dynamics
25. Gallup
26. Public Opinion Strategies
27. Star Tribune
28. Marist
29. Franklin & Marshall/Keystone
30. CBS/NY Times
31. Zogby Interactive (Internet)
32. Columbus Dispatch (mail-in poll)”

Mitch is losing. Let’s see if the other polls, and the November polls agree.

On the Farm Bill, the White House saw defections in both chambers. Farm groups had targeted between 75 and 80 House Republicans; they picked up 100. The Senate followed with even greater margins as McConnell joined in opposition to Bush.

In the case of the GI Bill and Iraq funding, McConnell vowed greater loyalty. But to his embarrassment, he couldn’t hold on to Kansas Sen. Pat Roberts, Missouri Sen. Kit Bond and Georgia Sen. Saxby Chambliss, three men running in what would seem to be low-risk reelection races in November.

Just a week before, the Kentuckian had personally promised House Republicans that he and his conference would stand with them on a veto strategy. The first goal was to summon 41 votes to delay action. Failing that, Republicans needed 34 votes to show they could sustain a Bush veto.

True to his word, McConnell and other leaders whipped hard on the vote, but the Kentuckian was overwhelmed by the power of the GI issue, leading to his most serious loss as Republican leader since taking over the post at the start of the 110th Congress.

The first sign of trouble came when Roberts bolted early in the voting after being counted by the leadership as one of its own. This shook a group of Republican fence sitters, who were also lured by extra spending for their priorities, including increased funding for rural schools. The die was cast when Bond crossed over to vote with Democrats, followed by Chambliss and Georgia Sen. Johnny Isakson, who had talked privately beforehand and decided to vote together against their leaders because of the GI package.

By that point, there was little or no hope of reversing the outcome, and a last scramble of Republicans elevated the final vote to 75-22.
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0508/10638.html