Somebody call Justin Brasell a whaaaaambulance
Joe Sonka May 27th, 2008
(crossposted at Barefoot and Progressive and DailyKos-go recommend it, yo)
The McConnell campaign is now officially in full panic mode.
In the wake of the devastating independent polling by Rasmussen showing Mitch McConnell five points behind Democrat Bruce Lunsford (49-44%), the McConnell campaign resorted t0 the classic tactic of a desperate campaign- the bogus “internal poll” showing happy numbers.
But that wasn’t the end of the desperation.
McConnell has now launched an all out war on the Rasmussen polling firm:
McConnell campaign manager Justin Brasell blasted the Rasmussen poll.“This is an indicator of what we can expect for the next five months,” Brasell said in a statement. “National Journal refuses to print Rasmussen polls, yet Democrat leaders will trumpet bogus polls like this one in a futile effort to create a false sense of momentum for the hand-picked candidate of New York Senator Chuck Schumer and the DSCC.”
Wow, is Rasmussen really that bad of a polling firm? Are they really out to get McConnell too, just like the Liberal Media Boogeyman??? Or is Mitch just falling back on his classic tactic of shooting and smearing the messenger?
Well, let’s take a look at how well they polled KY this Fall in the Governor’s race:
A week before the election, Rasmussen has Beshear winning 54% to 39%. The poll didn’t push undecideds, which broke for Beshear, and he ended up winning 59%-41%. Pretty damn accurate. In fact, if anything the poll was favorable to the Republicans.
Strike one.
And does Rasmussen really have some reputation as a crappy Democratic polling firm?
In 2006, even competitor Mason-Dixon agreed that Rasmussen was right along with them as the most accurate firm on that Fall’s election.
Strike two.
2004?- again, one of the top polling firms.
Strike three.
Oh, and the National Journal? Well, we already know their hackery, so please excuse me for yawning.
And let’s take a look at some testimonials:
“I am an obsessive linker to Rasmussen not just because he has a track record of getting the right answers, he has a record of asking the right questions” -right wing hack Mickey Kaus
“The best place to look for polls that are spot on is Rasmussen Reports”- Michael Barone, right-of-center US News and World Report
“Rasmussen produces some of the most accurate and reliable polls in the country today”- Larry Sabato, UVA
Hmmm…. I don’t seem to find this crappy reputation that you’re alleging, Mitch?
No, it looks just like whining from a campaign that finds itself where it couldn’t have imagined a year ago. On the ropes, scared, and desperate.
Somebody call a whaaaaambulance….
- 2008 KY U.S. Senate Race , Mitch McConnell , Opinion Polls
- Comments(9)
I ran the Rasmussen poll results on my blogspot, too. I hope SUSA matches up. Kenneth Stepp.
Citing Rasmussen accuracy in three instances is similar to using that famed 16trh century prestidigitator - Nostradamus to predict the initiation & outcome of the next U.S. election.
Especially reliable predictions in light of the absence of any United States at that time.
As much as any one else I want McConnell spending the rest of his life on a hill in Taiwan with his equvalently repugnant spouse.
I fear that by using unreliable and invalid polling data we’ll never know where we actually are.
Let’s all be realistic.
Bombasticly speaking … if McConnell’s people are getting their collective ‘tidy-whities’ twisted by an unrelible poll, they arre in more trouble than you describe, but in a different arena. So we need to concentrate our efforts elsewhere.
Mitch is loosing his clout
“No one wants to be seen as aligning with Bush right now,” said a GOP lobbyist close to the House and Senate Republican leadership. “Look, Cheney went to Mississippi [to campaign on behalf of Republican House candidate Greg Davis], and all we did was lose that election by 8 points. Republicans have to do what they have to do, and if the White House doesn’t like it, too bad.”
On the Farm Bill, the White House saw defections in both chambers. Farm groups had targeted between 75 and 80 House Republicans; they picked up 100. The Senate followed with even greater margins as McConnell joined in opposition to Bush.
In the case of the GI Bill and Iraq funding, McConnell vowed greater loyalty. But to his embarrassment, he couldn’t hold on to Kansas Sen. Pat Roberts, Missouri Sen. Kit Bond and Georgia Sen. Saxby Chambliss, three men running in what would seem to be low-risk reelection races in November.
Just a week before, the Kentuckian had personally promised House Republicans that he and his conference would stand with them on a veto strategy. The first goal was to summon 41 votes to delay action. Failing that, Republicans needed 34 votes to show they could sustain a Bush veto.
True to his word, McConnell and other leaders whipped hard on the vote, but the Kentuckian was overwhelmed by the power of the GI issue, leading to his most serious loss as Republican leader since taking over the post at the start of the 110th Congress.
The first sign of trouble came when Roberts bolted early in the voting after being counted by the leadership as one of its own. This shook a group of Republican fence sitters, who were also lured by extra spending for their priorities, including increased funding for rural schools. The die was cast when Bond crossed over to vote with Democrats, followed by Chambliss and Georgia Sen. Johnny Isakson, who had talked privately beforehand and decided to vote together against their leaders because of the GI package.
By that point, there was little or no hope of reversing the outcome, and a last scramble of Republicans elevated the final vote to 75-22.
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0508/10638.html
When McConnell loses the election in November, Team Mitch will come out with “internal election results” saying that he actually won.
We had better continue spreading the truth about Mitch McConnell so we can get him out of the government once and for all.
This from the Daily Kos:
“Robo pollsters
“by kos
“Wed May 28, 2008 at 02:20:22 PM PDT
“Whenever someone doesn’t like the results of a robo-pollster, the methodology is immediately called into question.
“National Journal refuses to print Rasmussen polls, yet Democrat leaders will trumpet bogus polls like this one in a futile effort to create a false sense of momentum for the hand-picked candidate of New York Sen. Chuck Schumer and the DSCC,” McConnell spokesman Justin Brasell said, referring to the chairman of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee.
The reality is that Robo-pollsters like SurveyUSA and Rasmussen have had the best track record the past few election cycles. In 2004, it was the robos who dominated the results:
Before the election, we publicly doubted and privately derided Rasmussen and SurveyUSA, which used recorded voices to read their poll questions. We rolled our eyes when they touted the virtues of uniformity and when they complained that live interviewers “may not know how to read or speak the English language,” could “chew gum,” or might “just make up the answers to questions.” It sounded to us like a rationalization for cutting costs.
Look who’s laughing now. Rasmussen and SurveyUSA beat most of their human competitors in the battleground states, often by large margins.
Then there was 2006:
* * *
Let’s look at Poblano’s scorecard for 2008:
1. Selzer & Co
2. SurveyUSA (Automated)
3. Rasmussen (Automated)
4. U of New Hampshire
5. Chicago Tribune/Market Shares
6. Field Poll
7. Mason-Dixon
8. Research 2000
9. Quinnipiac
10. Detroit News/Mitchell
11. Ohio Poll/U of Cincinnati
12. Public Policy Polling (automated)
13. Strategic Vision
14. Insider Advantage (automated)
15. Franklin Pierce
16. ABC/Washington Post
17. Zogby
18. EPIC-MRA
19. Farleigh Dickinson
20. Suffolk
21. CNN/Opinion Research
22. LA Times/Bloomberg
23. ARG
24. Fox/Opinion Dynamics
25. Gallup
26. Public Opinion Strategies
27. Star Tribune
28. Marist
29. Franklin & Marshall/Keystone
30. CBS/NY Times
31. Zogby Interactive (Internet)
32. Columbus Dispatch (mail-in poll)”
Mitch is losing. Let’s see if the other polls, and the November polls agree.
At least ten Republican held Senate seats are potentially in play for the Democrats during Election 2008. These include Senate seats in Alaska, North Carolina, Oregon, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Colorado, Minnesota, Kentucky, Virginia, and Texas. Republican incumbents in Maine and Kansas are a bit better off than many of their colleagues.
http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/mood_of_america/congressional_ballot/generic_congressional_ballot
This whole thing does not make any sense. We have a Senator who thinks that foreign outsourcing of jobs is fine and decent. This Senator does not care about the Citizens of the United States. This Senator believes that the rising fuel prices are good because of the increased demand for fuel in the third world. Eventually the standard of living in the United States will fall very rapidly because we rely on energy for everything. People will go out of business because the high cost of fuel will make business in the United States unprofitable. I really can’t see why people keep sending McConnell back to the Senate. I can not see why Kentucky would not support OBama. Forget about race, McCain cares more about “foreign policy” than he does about the United States and this country in really fading fast. If you believe that times are bad now, just wait about another year when the rising cost of energy really takes its toll. McCain is as tied up with the Heritage Foundation and George Bush is and Ronald Reagan was. Make no mistake about it, the Heritage Foundation supports what is cheapest - forget about what is right. If it is cheaper to bribe a foriegn country with jobs taken from the United States Citizen then do it. I really hate to see what will happen if McCain or McConnell is elected or as the case may be re-elected. I really hope that the polls are correct and the United States Citizens are finally waking up. In the national election, when the curtain closes on the voting machine, forget about race and vote for Obama and for God’s sake don’t vote for McConnell. We need to put Citizens in power who are loyal to the United States and McCain and McConnell do not fit this bill.
Charles we need to add Ed Whitfield to that list how can he vote on any bill that will benefit the Ky 1st district when he owns so much stock like this
Amgen Inc $1,001 to $15,000
Chevron Corp $100,001 to $250,000
Cisco Systems $1,001 to $15,000
Citicorp $15,001 to $50,000
Coastline Credit Union $1 to $1,000
Coca-Cola Co $15,001 to $50,000
Commercial Real Estate $100,001 to $250,000
Congressional Federal Credit Union $1,001 to $15,000
CSX Corp $1,001 to $15,000
Duke Energy $1,001 to $15,000
Exxon Mobil $100,001 to $250,000
Fidelity Blue Chip Fund $15,001 to $50,000
Fidelity IRA $100,001 to $250,000
Flavor X $15,001 to $50,000
General Electric $50,001 to $100,000
Greenbriar Sporting Club $100,001 to $250,000
Intel Corp $50,001 to $100,000
Marshall & Ilsley Bank $1,001 to $15,000
May Department Stores $100,001 to $250,000
Nokia Corp $1,001 to $15,000
Northwestern Annuity $1,001 to $15,000
Oak Aoc Growth Fund $1,001 to $15,000
Payless Shoes $15,001 to $50,000
Pfizer Inc $15,001 to $50,000
Riggs Bank $1,001 to $15,000
Schering-Plough Corp $1,001 to $15,000
Schwab Account Cash $1 to $1,000
Schwab IRA (A) $250,001 to $500,000
Schwab IRA (B) $100,001 to $250,000
TEPPCO Partners $1,001 to $15,000
TIA-CREFF $1,001 to $15,000
Time Wamer $1,001 to $15,000
United Bank $1,001 to $15,000
US Government Thrift $100,001 to $250,000
Vacant Lot $1,001 to $15,000
Vanguard GNMA Fund $15,001 to $50,000
Vanguard Mid Cap Growth Fund $15,001 to $50,000
Vanguard S&P 500 Fund $100,001 to $250,000
Vanguard Tax Managed Fund $15,001 to $50,000
Vista Del Lido $100,001 to $250,000
Williams Energy Services $1,001 to $15,000
Xerox Corp $1 to $1,000