Sen. Mitch McConnell’s defeat this November will come in the cities
Matt Gunterman May 22nd, 2008
Follow me here:
Exhibit 1: Sen. Mitch McConnell (R) spends the last year framing himself as the ultimate of all incumbents. In short, until now he’s essentially argued to Kentucky voters that they should return him to office because he’s at the center of power in Washington. Mitch McConnell wanted everyone to know that he is the establishment.
Exhibit 2: The 2008 political environment shapes up to be the most hostile for establishment candidates in at least a generation.
Exhibit 3: Democrats nominate an African American candidate who inspires record turnout among minorities and the college demographic in Kentucky’s urban areas.
Exhibit 4: While the average rural Kentucky voter [there are a decent number of progressives in rural Kentucky, but they aren't the average] despises the idea of President Barack Obama (D), that voter is nevertheless very unhappy with sustained $4/gallon gas, rampant inflation for food and energy, the withering of conservative ideology within the Republican party [e.g., its refusal to get too worked up over the legalization of gay marriage in California and the state's Republican governor's endorsement of said marriages; why isn't Mitch McConnell denouncing Gov. Arnold Schwarznegger (R), by the way?], an anemic national economy, and continuing war in Iraq. Thus, even though the average rural voter in Kentucky hates Obama, he or she will stay home in large numbers because of disgust with the Republicans and the very possible scenario shaping up that presidential nominee John McCain (R) is headed for major, lopsided defeat. Also, staying home is a good way to passively punish Mitch McConnell and his fellow unpopular Republicans.
Exhibit 5: Progressives across the state (rural and urban) are motivated and energized as never before; conservatives are resigned to defeat and walking in ideological wilderness in a way not seen since the 1970s. Bruce Lunsford’s millions of dollars backed by the political organizations of Reps. John Yarmuth (D) and Ben Chandler (D) in their respective districts produce record turnouts and excellent margins for Lunsford. Turnout in rural Kentucky is only about 60 percent of what it is in the major urban areas, and many of the voters in rural Kentucky decide to split their ticket. They vote for McCain, but immediately vote for Lunsford. It’s somehow cathartic for them. Mitch McConnell is narrowly defeated on the strength of turnout for the urban vote.
Some interesting statistics:
Jefferson County:
African American population = 18.9 percent
Year: (% Dem. primary) / (% general)
2008: 50.3 / XX.X
2007: 24.5 / 44.6
2006: 22.2 / 53.1
2004: 19.4 / 70.9
2003: 20.2 / 43.6
2002: 24.7 / 51.4
2000: 16.1 / 68.9
Fayette County:
African American population = 13.5 percent
Year: (% Dem. primary) / (% general)
2008: 48.1 / XX.X
2007: 26.6 / 41.4
2006: 23.1 / 43.3
2004: 17.2 / 75.1
2003: 23.9 / 49.7
2002: 30.6 / 48.4
2000: 14.0 / 69.6
- 2008 KY U.S. Senate Race , Bruce Lunsford , Mitch McConnell
- Comments(5)
RE: $4/gallon gas, rampant inflation for food and energy……
Blue Eyes tells me the only thing higher than a gallon of gas, in this area, is a gallon of milk. Approx 2 gal. of gas, round trip, plus 1 gal of milk = over $12. We country folk can’t afford to go to town very often, nad lord help us if we forget something and have to go back.
But then we see that they are eating DIRT in Hati because they can’t afford rice. Corn prices have caused food riots in Mexico, and 14 other countries. Bread is kept in locked display cases in Egypt ,,,,,, etc. Global warming is being ignored, while weather changes cause crop failure around the globe, and we make fuel for our cars out of food grains. No wonder they hate us!
Thirty days from mass starvation, but Mitch and BOMB BOMB IRAN McCain have a plan to save us.
First Mitch loads the farm bill with poison pill giveaway to rich horse owners, then Bush vetoes the farm bill for giving money to millionaires! Poor families on food stamps will not get needed increase to feed their kids! Food banks nearly empty! Shameless!
Food Prices continue to rise. Food riots from Haiti to Indonesia are causing increasing political instability.
Prices are increasing sharply for some of the most basic foodstuffs traded on international commodity markets.
The price of wheat has doubled in less than a year, while other staples such as corn, maize and soya are trading at well above their 1990s averages.
Rice and coffee prices are running at 10-year highs, and in some countries, prices for milk and meat have more than doubled.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7340214.stm
Mitch just voted NAY on the GI bill.. I guess the boys at Ft Knox and Ft Campbell will be pleased on how you support the troops
thomas.gov/cgi-bin/bdquery/z?d110:SN00022:@@@L&summ2=m&
kilowat, McCain did not even show up for the vote (he opposed the bill)and show support for the troops he wants to leave in Iraq for 100 years.
Zogby:
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Growing anxiety about their economic prospects and deep unhappiness with President George W. Bush and the U.S. Congress plunged Americans into a dark mood this month, according to a Reuters/Zogby poll released on Wednesday.
[snip]
Bush’s approval rating fell 4 percentage points to 23 percent, a record low for pollster John Zogby, and positive marks for the U.S. Congress fell 5 points to tie an all-time low at 11 percent.
The number of Americans who believe the country is on the right track fell from 23 percent to an abysmal 16 percent, another record for pessimism, as uncertainty about the economy and rising gas prices fuelled growing doubts about the future.
Bush is the least popular president since the dawn of modern polling; Americans are desperate for a change in direction; and by showing voters that McCain offers more of the same, Dems’ chances of success increase considerably. In some Democratic circles, this approach even has a name: “McSame.”
So why is Sidney Blumenthal calling the strategy “a mistake” ????
READERS’ VIEWS
BIPARTISAN BICKERING BY THE BARREL
I have a few questions regarding Sen. Mitch McConnell’s June 9 commentary.
What was the price of gasoline when the Bush administration took office nearly eight years ago? During that same period, how long did the Republican Party control Congress?
Is it possible the Democratic majority is having a bit of a problem getting anything done because of the refusal of McConnell’s side of the aisle to compromise on anything?
We would have an additional 1 million barrels of oil a day from the Alaska wildlife refuge if only that pesky Democrat hadn’t used his veto power back in the 1990s. The current rate of consumption in the United States is 20 million barrels a day and rising. How much of a price reduction can we expect with that whopping increase?
Does the precipitous decline in value of the U.S. dollar, brought about by this administration’s failed policies, have any impact on the price of motor fuel?
We all agree that lower taxes are a good thing. However, ask any American who worries about foreclosure, credit-card debt and the loss of jobs to foreign countries while they watch the economy go into the toilet what is the one thing they learned long ago.
It is: When revenue goes down, spending must follow. This is a truism McConnell and other politicians can’t seem to grasp. They’re running up debt that my grandchildren’s grandchildren will still be paying.
Tom Nelson
Frankfort
Artificial inflation
With the campaign season under way, it is no wonder that spin such as Sen. Mitch McConnell’s June 9 commentary, “Don’t blame me for high gas prices,” appears in the media.
The problem, however, is that it simply is not true. In 1999, McConnell teamed up with Sen. Phil Gramm of Texas to promote a piece of legislation that became known as the Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act.
The law revamped the banking industry, allowing many changes in ownership as well as allowable activities in which banks, security firms and insurance agencies could be engaged.
One of the most significant of these new liberalized activities was virtually unregulated trading in commodity derivatives — oil futures contracts, for example.
Recent consequences of this legislative gem include the ability of brokerage companies to create huge profit centers in the trading of commodity futures. This part of the legislation is responsible for allowing the run-up of the spot price of oil for paper profits without any real correlation to the demand for oil.
While this legislation was passed with a wide majority from both parties, it was the brain child of Big Business-friendly members of Congress at the behest of their financial industry patrons.
While I do not suggest that McConnell is solely responsible for this predicament, it is inaccurate to say that he shares no blame for high gas prices, and I would hope for a more honest debate between now and November.
Calvin D. Cranfill
Lexington
Shed some baggage
Sen. Mitch McConnell’s true colors really shine through in his June 9 commentary slamming the Herald-Leader editorial board.
McConnell’s mean-spiritedness, truculence and spiteful vindictiveness are plain for all to see. His attempt to blame Democrats for high gas prices is truly pathetic, when Vice President Dick Cheney and President Bush — both oil men — have been in charge of U.S. energy policy since 2001.
Fortunately, Kentuckians have the power to remove McConnell from office.
This November, let’s start moving Kentucky forward by dumping the baggage that drags us down.
Dave Cooper
Lexington