Update on Iowa and Predictions
Shawn Dixon January 1st, 2008
Happy New Years from Iowa! It’s cold here. And I mean really cold. Who knew? Today, I’m going to be doing “get out the caucus work” outside. The forecast: high of 10 degrees with a wind chill of -20 and snow. Yesterday we were out doing door to door and we got about 4-6 inches of snow.
But, I know you aren’t reading for the weather report. Of course you know since I’m here working for Edwards this can be read with a grain of salt, but I am predicting and Edwards win. It’s great to be here on the ground because it’s a completely different ballgame and feeling from that which the media projects. The people here like John Edwards. They like his message, his genuine personality and that he hasn’t forgotten where he comes from.
Yesterday, while doing the door to door I went up to one house. A woman about 80 years old pulled the door open just enough to see me. She yelled “who you here for?” and I quickly replied, “Hi, ma’am I’m out today volunteering for John Edwards for President.” She immediately flung the door open and said, “well then get yourself in here out of the cold.” She then went on to tell me about her strong support for Edwards and how she has stopped opening the door for anyone but Edwards’s canvassers. After that, I got to see pictures of her whole family, complete with fun stories. Those are the kinds of visits that keep you going and make it all worthwhile.
However, I’d be misleading you if I didn’t tell you that the other candidates have strong support too. Without going into the analysis too much I will make the following prediction: on caucus night, the Dems will finish Edwards first, Clinton second and Obama a surprisingly distant third. Again, that should be taken with a grain of salt, because I’m only in one part of the state. But, if this town is any indicator of the rest of the state, I’m confident of that kind of finish.
This is my first Iowa prediction, so we’ll see how it goes.
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- Comments(17)
Oh my word. The notion that an 80-something woman may well have slammed the door on you had you been out working for someone else is, how you say? Adorable!
I like John Edwards a great deal. He is the only one who is willing to admit the system is rigged against the average American. I hope he is able to win in Iowa, he needs the momentum.
From what I understand, Edwards has a very good chance of coming in first, and here’s why. In the Democratic caucuas system, the goers pick first and second choices, Edwards has the highest numbers of goers with experience and he’s got a very high number with those who are picking him second!
Go John!
Excellent article, thanks for writing about the old er woman! does the old heart good to hear it!
I can see a lot of disgruntled Obama and Clinton voters refusing to vote for the other candidate, so if any precincts see them with less then the required 15% you can bet Edwards stands to gain. However, I don’t feel that will be enough. Looks like Obama will edge Clinton, Edwards will be a close third and NOTHING will be settled.
It’s a shame so much importance is put on Iowa that so many non-Iowains come to influence the election. I’d be pissed if some loser kid from Iowa came and tried to convince me how I should vote in Kentucky. Hopefully the feeling is mutual there.
Interesting observation Herodotus. I’m wondering what a “close” finish will produce. The contributions are obviously going to pour into a strong winner but will a percentage point or 2 be that much of a factor? I’m predicting an Edwards, Obama and then Clinton finish but who knows? Iowa is such an unpredictable beast. Edward’s announcement of a 10 month withdraw from Iraq MAY make a huge difference considering there are very few pro-war folks out there and people are tired of the profiteering and propaganda. His take on lobbyist may help too. I think you’ll see a working man turn out in 08 considering they’ve been promised so much and have only seen a reverse Robin Hood administration. You may agree or disagree with that assessment but it should be obvious that the working class feel short changed to say the least. We’ll see. I do agree with you that it’s disturbing that a small fraction can set the stage but what would you suggest to fix that?
Hmm, I almost started to agree with you for about an iota of a second, there, Herodotus, but then you had to go slinging insults.
I’m not sure by what stretch of the imagination a young man in a top tier law program on a full ride should ever be called a “loser kid.” Of course, I understand your time is probably better spent not enlisting and being the resident concern troll on DMKY.
Happy Birthday, Shawn. I am looking forward to more posts from Iowa. This is absolutely the ONLY time I wish I lived in Iowa. We are rooting for John down here in West Kentucky!
Happy Birthday, Shawn. how did the dvd slide show work, ok i hope.
Yeah, John Edwards knows where he’s from, and he was born in Seneca, South Carolina. I got to drive around in Seneca, South Carolina over the holidays, and it’s come a long way, also. It’s not just the sleepy little textile town any more.
Why would anyone fret over a comment by Herodotus on the Democratic primary in Iowa. He has not voted for a Democrat, at least, since Reagan appeared.
Really glad to find out there are no out of state influences on the Republican side.
Sorry, wasn’t old enough to vote for Reagan.
And by my own definition, having nothing better to do then run to Iowa to campaign on behalf of multimillionaire/dirty trial lawyer John Edwards does in fact make you a loser kid.
I guess those “top tier” law jerks that are ruining the country attract wannabee top tier law jerks too!
You people have been in the Northeast too long to get a feel for what REAL America is like. (And I guess Louisville now counts as a little slice of the Liberal Northeast).
Last I checked, Americans are all REAL Americans. (That even includes the brown ones, the gay ones, the baby ones, the old ones, the female ones, and the trying-to-make-ends-meet ones.) Perhaps if your party didn’t insist on snubbing those REAL Americans it might have a chance at 2K8. As it stands, your party mostly cares about only the wealthy Americans (who are also REAL Americans) and is slowly freaking out about it’s alliance with the bigoted Americans (who are also REAL Americans).
REAL America is a diverse and beautiful place. I don’t see what phonies like you and yours have to offer REAL Americans.
^its
“Sorry, wasn’t old enough to vote for Reagan”
Your youth is obvious from the spew you spill.
“(And I guess Louisville now counts as a little slice of the Liberal Northeast)”
It’s becoming a national trend.
“And by my own definition, having nothing better to do then run to Iowa to campaign on behalf of multimillionaire/dirty trial lawyer John Edwards does in fact make you a loser kid.”
It’s “than”, not “then”. Go back to school.
Happy birthday Shawn, sorry I missed you at Christmas, had been very sick and needed free healthcare however I made it through the funk just fine….lol Sue did tell me you guys went to Union City and ate at your favorite Mexican place, my fav to. Hope everything is well keep in touch, have fun working during the campaign. I’m sure it’s been and will be a blast.
States
OMG I did a very bad typo, so sorry guys!! I’m very sorry.
Thanks States!! Fixed the typo. Ha.