The Hound Dog December 14th, 2007

National pollster Celinda Lake published a piece today noting Mitch McConnell is extremely vulnerable to Lt. Col. Andrew Horne:

Recent polling shows Mitch McConnell facing real trouble in his 2008 re-election bid for the U.S. Senate. Even before ex-Marine Andrew Horne entered the race, McConnell was already in a precarious position, having grown increasingly unpopular among Kentucky voters. Now, with the entrance of Horne, this is shaping up to be one of the most competitive challenger races of the cycle.

After nearly a quarter century in the Senate, Mitch McConnell has left the voters of Kentucky looking for more. Just 45% of voters approve of the job McConnell is doing as Senator. A 46% plurality disapproves of McConnell’s job performance. McConnell’s close allegiance to Bush and a series of high-profile votes have put him at odds with public opinion. From his support for billions in taxpayer subsidies for Big Oil, trade deals that cost Americans’ jobs, to his opposition to veterans’ and children’s health care and the minimum, McConnell has cast himself firmly in the mold of the “Washington Insider,” dangerously out of touch with the constituents he purports to represent.

Well before Horne was an announced candidate, he already posed a serious threat to McConnell. In a trial heat between the long-serving Senator and the ex-Marine, Horne pulled within 11 points of McConnell and kept him under 50%. Horne drew 34% of the vote compared to 45% for McConnell, with 21% of voters undecided. Traditionally, undecided voters in a race involving an incumbent will break disproportionately toward the challenger; this is particularly true when the challenger, like Horne, has room to expand his profile among the electorate.

Lt. Col. Horne’s candidacy is not good news for McConnell. Especially when the media starts contrasting Lt. Col. Horne’s 27 years of service in the Marines to Mitch McConnell’s service that did not even last 27 days…

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