Matt Gunterman November 7th, 2007

If Larry Forgy (R) switches to Larry Forgy (I) and enters the U.S. Senate general election against Sen. Mitch McConnell (R), then McConnell’s defeat next November is assured, and here’s why.

[Below, I've included three graphs. The first details where Ross Perot outperformed his statewide haul in 1992; there's an obvious geography to that performance. The second shows what counties Forgy won in his 1995 gubernatorial bid. The third is of the counties that McConnell captured in 1990, in what was his closest reelection bid. McConnell depends heavily on large margins in south central Kentucky, of course, to pull out a victory in close races.]

First, the economy and mood of the nation in 2008 are shaping up to be a lot like they were in 1992. The nation looks headed towards recession, there’s a lack of confidence in the markets, inflation will likely kick into higher gear, the dollar is collapsing, and gasoline is expected to approach $4 per gallon in the summer and stay above $3 per gallon for a long, long time. Combine all this economic pain with the fact that the United States will most assuredly still be bogged down in Iraq and spending tens of billions of dollars there every month, and you’ve got a recipe for a political environment in 2008 that makes 1992 look like a Sunday afternoon picnic.

Second, you’ll recall that in 1992 billionaire Ross Perot entered the presidential race as an independent. He ran on a platform centered on fiscal conservatism and not much else. He ran a provocative but rocky campaign. Stating plots against his daughter (or something like that), he dropped out of the race, only to jump right back in a short time later. Democrats and Republicans alike started to questioned his mental state. Yet, in the end, in an election where voters were in a protesting mood, Perot’s troubles didn’t stop him from taking 18.9% of the national vote and 13.7% here in Kentucky.

Now, enter the possibility of Larry Forgy (I) in 2008. The nation is in a sour mood once again, and even many Republicans are searching for a new direction. I think it’s safe to generalize that what most of these questioning Republicans are searching for is a “true” conservative because, in their minds, what’s wrong with the nation isn’t that it embraced conservative ideology in the first place. No, as they see it, what’s wrong is that Republican leaders like Pres. Bush and McConnell abandoned conservative ideals. That’s what’s at the core of Republican complaints (whether those complaints are coming from Larry Forgy or The Club for Growth) against McConnell: the senator’s not in it for the conservative movement, he’s in it for himself. And McConnell has provided plenty of evidence to frustrated conservative Republicans to justify this belief, from his support for bloated spending bills to his support for immigration reform (which, on the latter point, he only pulled when it became clear that his own political survival was at risk; in other words, he didn’t satisfy the conservative base with that switch; he only demonstrated what they suspected: that he’s a feckless, self-interested man).

And, moreover, in keeping with the Perot comparison, both Democrats and Republicans alike say nasty things about Larry Forgy and his state of mind, but that doesn’t stop many Republicans in Kentucky, like my childhood best friend, from saying when asked about the possibility of a Forgy run against McConnell, and I quote, “I’d follow Larry Forgy over a cliff.” The memories of what was, in the minds of many Kentucky Republicans, Democrat Paul Patton’s theft of the 1995 governor’s race are still alive and festering. Forgy has a way of firing up something in people that McConnell has never and will never have.

Forgy would make for a powerful protest candidate. He has name recognition, so he wouldn’t need a ton of money, but I think he’d do rather well in fundraising. If Ron Paul (R) can raise over $4 million in a day, I think Larry Forgy (I) can do pretty well with a national pool of small donors to tap and those he already has here in Kentucky. Forgy has an intensely loyal following; he has an established network.

And, as far as Mitch McConnell’s future is concerned, his candidacy would all but end McConnell’s career. Ross Perot did extremely well across northern Kentucky in 1992; people there were more than willing than the average Kentuckian to pull the lever for the man. Northern Kentucky is a base for McConnell, but its voters have demonstrated that an independent message can resonate with them. Are voters like that simply people who wouldn’t normally turn out to the polls? Possibly. However, Larry Forgy is very much an establishment character, so he’s likely not going to inspire the kind of outsider interest that Perot’s candidacy did.

Also, Forgy will do severe damage to McConnell across the Republican bedrock of south central Kentucky. There’s no way around the fact that loyalties would be divided there. That’s not to say that McConnell won’t win the vast majority of Republican votes in the region, but every percentage point that Forgy pulls will draw blood for McConnell in the statewide picture.

I think an independent run in November 2008 by Forgy takes 10 to 15 percent of the vote, and nearly all of it from McConnell.

• 2008 KY U.S. Senate Race , Larry Forgy , Mitch McConnell
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